200 Billion Tariffs Levied, Dab tsi cuam tshuam rau LED kev lag luam saw

200 billion tariffs levied, dab tsi raug rau LED kev lag luam saw

Thaum lub Cuaj Hlis 17, US Thawj Tswj Hwm Trump tau tshaj tawm tias nws yuav nce tus nqi ntawm 10% rau suav cov khoom muaj nqis 200 billion USD, thiab ua tiav nws txij Lub Cuaj Hli 24 txog rau thaum xaus ntawm lub xyoo. Qhov no tariff yuav nce mus rau 25% los ntawm Xyoo Tshiab. Sab Suav, uas npaj rau Tebchaws Asmeskas qhov kev txiav txim siab, tau hais ua ntej tias nws yuav tsum tawm tsam nws. Txawm li cas los, Trump kuj tau ceeb toom, yog tias Suav sab tiv thaiv, tam sim ntawd ntxiv rau 267 billion US dollars.

Txoj kev sib haum xeeb kev lag luam tau tawg los ntawm Trump tau khov kho, thiab qhov kev lag luam hauv BP tau muaj kev tu siab cuam tshuam thiab cuam tshuam rau.

Cov se ntawm cov khoom no tau txog li 200 nais nyiaj ntawm Teb Chaws Asmeskas, nrog rau kev lag luam teeb pom kev zoo, yog kwv yees li 8 billion USD. Raws li ib tug tshwm sim, 8 billion yuav indirectly rau LED kev lag luam saw ntsig txog qhov ntws ntawm kev lag luam teeb pom kev zoo, thiab ua rau pessimism thiab chim siab rau lub zeem muag ntawm LED kev lag luam los ntawm cov kws kho mob thiab cov lag luam capital.

Tab sis yog tias koj tsis tuaj yeem cuam tshuam txog qhov tau thiab qhov feem ntawm qhov cuam tshuam, pessimism lossis kev zoo siab tsuas yog suav tias yog ib hom kev xav hauv catharsis, thiab nws tsis yog qhov tseem ceeb rau kev txiav txim kev txiav txim siab thiab kev txiav txim siab.

Saib tom qab ntawm txoj kev loj hlob ntawm Sino-Teb Chaws Asmeskas lag luam ua lag luam, thaum lub se tawm ntawm lub tshuab ntxhua khaub ncaws thiab kev lag luam pib, feem ntau cov neeg tsis pom zoo nrog kev lag luam ua lag luam. Txog thaum lub Plaub Hlis 50 feem pua ntawm cov lus teev tseg.

1.1 Cov khoom LED muaj nyob hauv thawj daim ntawv teev npe ntawm cov ntawv teev tseg

Thaum thawj daim ntawv teev npe ntawm cov ntawv teev lus piav qhia tawm, cov tswv yim hais txog poj niam ntawm LED tau tsuas yog peb yam khoom, thiab cov khoom no muaj cov intermediates ntawm qhov chaw lag luam LED, tsis nrog cov neeg siv khoom. Cov neeg muas zaub nqes tau ua cov tuam txhab hluav taws xob. Manufacturers ntawm cov ntaub ntawv thov, Tuam Tshoj tus txhua xyoo mus rau Tebchaws Meskas tsis loj.

Qhov no vim hais tias lub tuam txhab uas muag khoom siv hluav taws xob hauv Tebchaws Meskas mas tsis tshua muaj heev, CREE yog tsev neeg, thiab qee cov khoom siv teeb pom kev tseem raug tsim nyob hauv Tebchaws Asmeskas. Txawm li cas los xij, feem ntau ntawm hom teeb pom kev zoo raug tsim nyob rau hauv Suav foundries thiab tom qab ntawd muag rau Tebchaws Meskas raws li cov khoom tiav.

Nyob rau hauv dav dav, txawm hais tias cov tariffs ntawm no batch yog heev, qhov feem ntawm cov LED kev lag luam yog heev tsawg. Qhov nyiaj xyoo Sino-Teb Chaws Asmeskas tsis tshaj $ 200 lab nyiaj.

1.2 LED cov khoom muaj feem xyuam nrog hauv cov kab lus thib ob ntawm 2000 nqi

Cov tariffs muab koom rau hauv qhov kev hloov ntawm cov ntawv tariffs yog heev ntau. Nrog cov teeb pom kev zoo txog LED, muaj ntau tshaj 30 khoom nkag mus rau hauv phau ntawv, thiab luam tawm txhua xyoo ntawm Tuam Tshoj thiab Tebchaws Meskas yog kwv yees li 8 billion USD. Seb nws yog 10% los yog 25% tariff, nws yuav muaj feem xyuam rau Sino-US teeb pom kev lag luam luam.

200 billion tus nqi nyiaj US cov nyiaj qiv thiab rhiab heev rau kev lag luam LED

2.1 Kev ntsuas ntawm cov txiaj ntsim kev lag luam

Raws li qhov kev xam pom ntawm LEDinside, nyob rau hauv lub sij hawm luv luv, vim muaj teeb meem ntawm Suav manufacturers ntawm lub exporting sab kom kho ntau lawm, lawv yuav dais tus nqi ntawm kwv yees li 1.5 billion US nyiaj.

Nyob rau lub sij hawm nruab nrab, tariffs yuav sib koom los ntawm Suav exporters thiab US cov neeg siv raws li suav cov neeg ua lag luam uas ua raws li cov neeg lag luam muaj peev xwm los tswj cov nyiaj thiab ntau ntawm cov khoom xa tuaj rau Tebchaws Meskas.

Nyob rau hauv ntev khiav, vim hais tias tuam ntxhab muaj txhij txhua qhov yooj yim, lawv tuaj yeem ua raws cov nqi tariffs los ntawm lwm tus neeg sab nrauv lossis tshem tawm los ntawm Tebchaws Asmeskas. Yog li ntawd, tus nqi ntawm cov khoom nyob rau hauv Tebchaws Asmeskas kev lag luam yuav siab tshaj tus nqi thoob ntiaj teb.

Yog li ntawd, los ntawm lub tswv yim ntawm lub khw muag khoom, lub sij hawm ntev ntawm qhov poob yog qhov tsawg heev.

2.2 Cov kev ntsuam xyuas ntawm qhov kev poob qis los ntawm 200 billion tus nqi txhim kho rau lub teeb pom kev lag luam LED

Raws li qhov poob ntawm Suav exporters, peb muaj peev xwm ua rau kev soj ntsuam ntawm cov tub luam LED siv raws li ntau lub sij hawm kom ntsuas yam muaj tseeb ntawm LED kev ua lag luam saw.

Txhua sab sawv cev rau qhov sib txawv ntawm cov lag luam sib faib khoom, txhua kab uas sawv cev rau kev lag luam sib txawv ntawm cov hnub sib txawv thiab cov nqi ntau ntxiv, cov nuj nqis ntawm lub rooj sib txawv sawv cev, qhov kev lag luam hauv kev lag luam hauv qhov tam sim no txog 200 billion Feem ntawm US duas las nqi.

Nws tuaj yeem pom ntau kom meej nrog daim duab qhia peb sab, thiab qhov feem ntau yog qhov ntim Hoobkas ntawm tus nqi qis ntawm 25%. Qhov txuas txuas yuav muaj feem cuam tshuam rau ntawm pob txhua txhua tshaj qhov pob.

Piv txwv, qhov lag luam me me ntawm LED chips rau teeb pom kev zoo yog li 11 billion. Piv txwv ib lub tuam txhab muag cuag li 1 billion yuan, thiab qhov sib qhia ntawm cov teeb pom kev zoo LED chips yog 10%. Nyob rau lub sij hawm luv luv, ntawm 10% tariff qib, cov paj tau qis dua. Qhov kev txiav txim yog kwv yees li ntawm 3.6 lab Teb Chaws Asmeskas las, thiab tsuas yog 8 lab US nyiaj nyob hauv 25% tariff theem. Qhov cuam tshuam rau kev muag khoom ntawm 1 billion RMB tsis tseem ceeb.

Lub txheej txheem ntim txheej txheem ntau yog cuam tshuam ntau vim tias nws muaj feem cuam tshuam ntau dua ntawm tus qauv ntawm cov teeb pom kev lag luam. Txawm li cas los xij, kev lag luam ntawm cov khw muag khoom lag luam feem ntau tsis siab, txawm tias qhov sib koom ua lag luam nce mus txog 10%, feem ntau cov nqi txiav txim ntawm 10% tariff qib nyob rau lub sij hawm luv luv tsuas yog 11 lab tus neeg Asmeskas, thiab nyob ntawm 25% theem, nws tsuas yog 23 lab. Tebchaws Asmeskas las.

Lwm cov tuam txhab uas muaj cov lag luam me me tuaj yeem cuam tshuam ntau dua.

Hauv nruab nrab thiab ntev, qhov tseeb ntawm cov tuam ntxhab los ntawm cov kev hloov kho thiab lwm cov kev coj ua yuav tsis yoojyim.

ntsiab lus

Txawm hais tias peb qhov kev tshawb fawb pom tias qhov feem ntawm cov ntawv xaib ntawm qhov chaw lag luam ntawm LEDs tsawg tsawg, qhov tseeb siab tau los ntawm LED cov lag luam kev lag luam yog tsis tseem ceeb. Qhov txawv ntawm no yog dab tsi?

Qhov tsis txaus siab ntawm kev thov thiab kev xav nyob rau hauv cov saw hlau yog ntawm chav kawm yog ib qho tseem ceeb hauv lub hauv paus, tab sis kev puas siab puas ntsws ntawm kev ua tsov ua rog ua lag luam kuj yog qhov tseem ceeb tshaj.

Terminal hom ntau siv sijhawm ntau dua ntawm kev ua lag luam kev lag luam los mus siv lub sijhawm los txo cov nuj nqis siab thiab ces muab tso rau ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob sab nraud. Tawm ntawm kev ntshai ntawm kev ua tsov ua rog, tag nrho cov kev sib txuas hauv cov khoom muag tau ua dua txhawm, txo cov khoom muag, thiab txawm muag ntawm cov nqi qis kom tshem cov khoom muag, ua rau cov ntse poob hauv kev thov deb tshaj qhov tseeb feem ntawm tariff shocks.

Tab sis qhov no txhais tau hais tias tom qab qhov tseeb ntawm tariffs yog tswm, kev puas siab puas ntsws yam yuav tsum abdicated, thaum cov neeg siv cov lus nug tsis tau zoo, qhov kev thov rau yav tom ntej restraint rebounds, thiab muab cov khoom ntxiv rau cov khoom yuav muaj zog.